Market Weekly Overview | February 25
Welcome to this week’s market overview, where we break down key financial events, geopolitical developments, and market trends that shape global trading dynamics. Each edition provides in-depth analysis of major assets, including gold, Bitcoin, and EURUSD, alongside critical news affecting the broader financial landscape. Whether you are a trader looking for strategic insights or an investor keeping track of macroeconomic shifts, this report delivers the essential updates you need to navigate the markets effectively.
Key market news and statistics:
- Ukraine to sign minerals agreement with the U.S. to end war
- New tariff promises weigh hard on market sentiment
- Germany's opposition conservatives win the national election
- Negotiations risk to stall in Gaza
- Crypto exchange Bybit hacked for $1.4 billion
- PCE data to shape the market direction on Thursday
Gold
The precious metal hovered near the upper edge of our spotted consolidation. Last week, Trump warned of imminent tariffs on lumber and forest products, boosting gold prices despite progress in the Ukraine peace talks. For instance, He sharply criticized Zelensky, calling him a dictator, which is a sign of a more accommodating stance towards Russia. This week, the key driver for the precious metal will be provided by the PCE price index, released on Friday 28, 15:30 MT time. If U.S. growth concerns persist, the metal is bound to go higher.
This week’s advised trading strategy is to follow closely the developments of an even smaller range. Breakout trading is the one to follow. You can consider opening long trades if gold breaks out and closes above the previous ATH ($2954/oz). Conversely, you can speculate short if the $2918/oz mark fails to hold.
Bitcoin
Last week the first cryptocurrency drifted lower, then rebound to $99,500. After that, news of the Bybit hack by the North Korean Lazarus group sparked a sell-off in the coin, plummeting it back to $95,000. Until further plans on Bitcoin’s implementation in the U.S. financial system are released, the next important price driver, like for gold, will be the PCE data results, which can help market participants forecast what the Fed’s decision in March is more likely to be.
Yesterday, BTCUSD reached the lower edge of the daily consolidation. This level is a critical one. From here, you can open long positions with a high risk/reward ratio. However, if the $91,000 - $89,000 mark fails to hold, a further correction lower might happen.
EURUSD
EURUSD reacted bullishly on Monday after the national elections in Germany were won by a moderate conservative party. In any case, Afd (Alternative for Germany), a far-right party, also showed the biggest numbers in a historic second-place surge. Other key drivers this week include the developments of the Ukraine peace talks and further clearance in Trump’s tariff plans. Next week the BCE is expected to cut rates by a quarter of a basis point, fundamentally pressuring the pair to the downside.
Last week EURUSD behaved in one of the forecast ways, breaking to the upside, out of the downward channel. These two weeks monitor the 1.05330 mark, which would be the nearest point of interest and resistance on higher timeframes. In case the price shows a strong bullish force behind a breakout move to the upside, long trades can be undertaken. More likely, in case the price rejects strongly to the downside, ideally after grabbing some liquidity, the pair has all the chances to continue lower.
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